May 21, 2013
A VERY ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PERIOD REMAINS ON TAP FOR THIS WEEK...AS A SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE LINED UP TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA...FOLLOWING SIMILAR TRACKS IN A RELATIVE FLAT AND FAST-MOVING FLOW ALOFT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED...AND IN SOME CASES FLOODING...FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER...AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND STALL OUT...AND WEAK SURFACE WAVES DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES... ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AM GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE EURO AND GFS...WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EURO...THOUGH THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH THE NEW GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE EURO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH STILL ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...THIS LATTER DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROVIDE A STRONG ENOUGH SURGE TO PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO MORE CLOUDINESS IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
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