May 22, 2013
THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/UPPER LOWS LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL HANG AROUND OR REMAIN STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES UP INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW LIFTING NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. THE GFS PV ANOMALY IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND EXTENDS DOWN TO 600-700 MB. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE TWO MODELS BOTH INDICATE THE LOW DEEPENING TO AROUND 980-990 MB COME SATURDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT BOTH THE KINEMATICS AND THE INSTABILITY ARE LINING UP FAIRLY WELL. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL IN THAT 3-5 DAY WINDOW AND THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS AROUND 50
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