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Wednesday Night through Monday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN REMAINS VERY SIMILAR. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THEY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVES OR UPPER LOWS TRANSITIONING THROUGH IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS A STRONG UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL LAY OUT FROM EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AREAS... THE MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF INDICATES A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AND WE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD IT IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.


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