Discussion through Friday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOW THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE REGION AND SHIFTING EAST AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SREF PROBABILITIES AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE INDICATING DECENT CHANCES FOR SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS WELL. HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR THE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL MAKE IT OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT...WE WILL ONLY GO WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THESE AREAS. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA AND EXTEND WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND SE ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MIXING RATIOS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW (<5G/KG). THEREFORE...WILL KEEP GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF LA WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.


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