May 20, 2013
AS THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (WHICH PROVIDED THE RECENT WARM AND DRY STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA) CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE COMPLEX AND LIKELY SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST GRADUALLY EJECTING ITS ENERGY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT EXACTLY HOW UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BECOME OVER THE CWA IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO FAVOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NE ALONG THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING UPPER TROF...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL FAVORS THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF THE TROF UNTIL MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE 2 SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PACKAGE WHICH WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND THE LOWEST POPS AND WARMEST TEMPS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...SO UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE APPROACHED...WILL FAVOR NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS FOR TUE-WED.
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