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Saturday through Wednesday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

MODELS BEGIN EXTENDED PERIOD CONSISTENT WITH TROFFING OVER WRN CONUS AND DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. THEN...SOME DIVERGENCE. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT SEWD OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO PROTECT OUR REGION WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING KEEPING AIRMASS DRY AND WARM WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. THEN THE FRONT WILL LIMP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND LINGER W-E ACROSS CWA ON TUESDAY BUT WITH ALMOST NO PUNCH. SO AT LEAST UNTIL THEN...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW AND GOOD CHANCES OF LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG. ECMWF MUCH WEAKER WITH FRONT...WITH DRIER AIRMASS OVER CWA. BELOW 20 PCT POPS THRU EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH CWA REMAINING IN WARM SECTOR...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO (AVG 46/71) THRU THE PERIOD...EXPECT MINS IN THE MID 50S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH AFTN.


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