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Friday through Tuesday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE LATEST GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF RUNS ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THEY ALL FORECAST DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT DIVERGE AFTERWARD. THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO PROTECT OUR REGION WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING UNTIL ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO LIMP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF INSISTS ON A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN CASE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...WE WILL LOWER THE GFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL BEGIN TO FORECAST SLIGHT POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.


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