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Thursday Night through Monday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIVERGE AFTERWARD. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAIN THIS RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY...UNTIL FINALLY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. THE ECMWF FORECASTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. WE WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NCEP. AFTER BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. WE WILL BLEND THE GFS BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS MOS...AS THE BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE SEEMS TO DO A BETTER JOB AT REFLECTING JUST HOW COOL THE NEARSHORE SHELF WATERS ARE AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST (GIVEN THE FORECAST FOR PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS). FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.


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