Discussion through Saturday

By: NWS
By: NWS

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ON EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 INLAND AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE AND LINGER INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. FAIR AND INCREASINGLY MILD/WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE ANTICIPATING ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER FLAT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AFTER ANY AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS BURN OFF THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU FIELD. 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 6 AND 8C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS AMOUNT OF WARMING... COMBINED WITH THE WEAK OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZES. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (ESPECIALLY THOSE ZONES ALONG APALACHEE BAY)...THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS A TAD COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT MAY FAIL TO FALL OUT OF THE LOWER 50S WITH THE COLDEST LOCATIONS ONLY REACHING IN THE UPPER 40S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE DURING FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING 10-11C. DIURNAL MIXING WITH A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES. WHILE WE ARE ENJOYING THE QUIET AND WARM WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE PATTERN WILL BE EVOLVING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND SETTING UP OUR NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS/NE. THIS LOW WILL THEN LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH AND INTERACT WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT AS A SERIES OF SURFACE IMPULSES RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING FRIDAY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES (MAINLY FROM KDHN TO KABY). IT WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DETAILS ARE STILL SKETCHY ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER IT IS RECOMMENDED TO KEEP UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS IN CASE THE THREAT FROM THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT.


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