Discussion through Wednesday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON EASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW LOOKS TO INCREASE DRASTICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND NOW ANTICIPATING A LOWER CLOUD DECK TO ADVECT WESTWARD FROM SE GA/NE FL REACHING THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND THEN POSSIBLY EXPANDING AS FAR WEST AS KABY AND KTLH TOWARD OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND AND MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE COAST. OF NOTE...MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ATTEMPTING TO SPIT OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS WE ARE LOOKING AT FAIRLY HEALTHY LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SE GEORGIA DUE TO THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOW LEVEL SHOWERS COULD FORM IN THIS AREA AND PROGRESS WESTWARD. EITHER WAY THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR...THEY WOULD NOT EVEN BE MEASURABLE. WILL ADD SPRINKLES TO THE GRIDS EARLY TOMORROW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN BIG BEND...BUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW WITH SILENT 10%. REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AFTER TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH A RATHER STATIC PATTERN CONSISTING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF FROM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND WEAKLY RIDGED/ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE EXPECTING A SLOW WARMING TREND IN BOTH THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AFTER ANY LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...850MB TEMPS IN THE 4-6C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (ESPECIALLY WAKULLA / FRANKLIN COUNTIES) TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOWER 60S WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. IN FACT...LATEST MODIS HIGH-RES SATELLITE IMAGED SEA-SURFACE TEMPS FOR PORTIONS OF APALACHEE BAY SHOWED LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH 850MB TEMPS DURING THE PEAK-HEATING HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON UP BETWEEN 6 AND 9C. DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD MIX THIS COLUMN OUT TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S AT THE SURFACE. ONCE AGAIN A BIT COOLER AT THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEA-FOG MOVING ASHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME AND WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE OR TWO BEFORE PLACING ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDS (IF NEEDED).


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