Friday through Tuesday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THERE`S A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS CYCLE THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOOKING BACK AT THE VARIOUS MODEL RUNS...DATING BACK TO THE 23/06Z GFS...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND. THE 24/00Z GFS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 23/00Z GFS...BUT THE INTERVENING RUNS HAVE PRODUCED A VARIETY OF INTERESTING RESULTS. EVEN THE EURO IS SHOWING SOME RATHER INTERESTING SOLUTIONS. THE 23/12Z EURO BROUGHT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND EVEN TRIED TO CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS WOULD BE A VERY COLD PATTERN FOR OUR REGION. THE 24/00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE TOGETHER. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN LOW IN AMPLITUDE AND NOT RESEMBLE THE 23/12Z EURO PREDICTION. I WOULD SUSPECT THAT THE 23/12Z EURO WAS AN OUTLIER AND THE 24/00Z EURO WILL RETURN TO A MORE DAMPENED PATTERN...AND THUS A WEAKER FRONT AND MUCH LESS OF A COLD INTRUSION. PERSISTENCE MAY BE THE KEY HERE TO THE FORECAST AS THE INHERITED FORECAST OF 24 HOURS AGO WILL CHANGE ONLY LITTLE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AND STALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY DELIVERING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG RETURN FLOW...FEEL IT BETTER TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING ISOLATED FOR NOW. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY WITH A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST PUSHING THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA. BEYOND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IN A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN SUCH AS THIS...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS. OF COURSE...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A DIFFERENT STORY. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AWAY FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSIONS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMO AND BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE.


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