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Thursday through Monday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

OVERALL LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO OUR REGION. THE 23/00Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE 22/12Z EURO...AND GIVEN THE PATTERN...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF FUTURE RUNS SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM DOWN EVEN MORE. THE MODELS EVENTUALLY SHOW THIS BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES IN ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES THAT MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND THAT WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY EVENING AND PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE PERIOD. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL GO ALONG WAY TO DETERMINE TEMPERATURES ON THESE DAYS. EVEN IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT IS NOT APPRECIABLY COLD.


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