Hazardous Weather Outlook Update

By: National Weather Service
By: National Weather Service

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
147 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

CORRECTED TO ADD DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN.

ALZ065069-FLZ007019-026029-034-GAZ120131-142148-155161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-191000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
147 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009 /1247 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009/

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE UNDER A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THIS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE. MODERATE RISK ASSIGNMENTS ARE A FAIRLY RARE
OCCURRENCE...AND GENERALLY OCCUR ONLY ONE OR TWO TIMES A YEAR IN
THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.

MOISTURE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY RETURNING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WILL THE INSTABILITY. WITH VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...THE
FORECAST AREA IS BEING PRIMED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...
POSSIBLY A MAJOR ONE. INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...PERHAPS EVEN A STRONG TORNADO. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
CATCHES UP TO THE STORMS...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE...IN OTHER WORDS A SQUALL LINE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AT THIS
TIME...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE COULD BE
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A LIGHT
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA BORDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...AND A MORE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL FAVOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES...SHOULD ANY OCCUR...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DELIVER A SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT FREEZE AGAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN HAS ALREADY BEEN ACTIVATED FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE.


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