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Friday through Tuesday Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

AS THE PATTERN CHANGING COLD FRONT SWEEPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FL PENINSULA ON THU NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SHORT DURATION LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS N PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT BELIEVE THE LAST COUPLE CYCLES OF THE MEX GUIDANCE ARE TOO COLD FURTHER TO THE S...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PROJECTED 5 TO 10 KT NW SFC WINDS. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE WARMING ABOVE 0C ON FRI NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE POSITION WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... WITH A POSSIBLE LONG DURATION LIGHT FREEZE OR EVEN A SHORT DURATION HARD FREEZE...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COLD AS THE GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES...BUT ALL AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FCSTS FROM THE NWS IN TALLAHASSEE ON THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S....THE NEXT COLD FRONT IN THIS SERIES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW ON SAT...BUT BELIEVE THE GFS IS STILL QUITE A BIT OVERDONE OF THE MOISTURE FIELDS AND RESULTING POPS AHEAD FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY...AND UNLESS THE LATER 00 UTC RUN CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY...WILL KEEP IT THAT WAY FOR THIS PACKAGE. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN AND MON...BUT EXACTLY HOW COLD THIS AIR MASS WILL BE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...SO WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE INTERIOR FOR THESE TWO MORNINGS. LATER IN THE PERIOD ON NEXT MON AND TUE...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN EITHER CASE. UPDATE: THE 00 UTC ECMWF NOW DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SHOWER WITH THIS NEXT FRONT...SO WILL PLAN ON CARRYING 20 PERCENT POPS SAT AFTN-EVENING.


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