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Discussion through Sunday

By: NWs
By: NWs

THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE A WET WEEKEND...WITH 3 MAIN FOCUSES FOR THE RAIN. THE FIRST WILL BE THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES...NEAREST THE BEST LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE NEXT FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OFF THE GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE QUICKLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS FRONTAL WAVE WILL SERVE AS THE THIRD SYNOPTIC SCALE FOCUS FOR RAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL FORECAST SWATHS OF SIZABLE QPF (UP TO 3 INCHES)...THEY OF COURSE DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE MCS-INDUCED QPF BULLS EYES. TO ADDRESS THIS UNCERTAINTY WE BLENDED THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE...AND OUR SUBSEQUENT QPF IS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES (FOR THE WHOLE WEEKEND)...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES IF/WHERE MESOSCALE ENHANCED RAIN BANDS OCCUR. (THIS GOES WELL WITH THE INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ON SATURDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL...AS BOTH THE SPC SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES AND THE SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WX WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT ON SATURDAY. THE FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS CALL INTO QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER (FROM THE MORNING) WILL EVER TURN OVER AND ALLOW FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION BUT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FOG OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.


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