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Monday through Friday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER OUR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH THE HIGH CENTER PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUES. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPLEX PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF COUNTRY. SURFACE LOW WILL BE FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONTAL FEATURE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SHOWER/RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH OFF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. 13/00Z ECMWF AND GFS NOW BOTH SHOWING SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE FRONT EXITING TO OUR SOUTH WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY. STILL A LONG WAY OUT BUT BASED ON A CONSENSUS PATTERN BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...A LIGHT FREEZE FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION NEXT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.


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