May 19, 2013
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF RAIN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO GA AND AL. HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FL AND THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE PROPAGATES EASTWARD ALONG IT. BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC TIMES FRAMES FOR RAIN...SO WE USED A MET/GFS MOS BLEND AND SMOOTHED OUT THIS MEAN (TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY) CONSIDERABLY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WHEN WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE 50 KT LEVEL NORMALLY SEEN IN MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS HERE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LATEST SREF POST-PROCESSED SEVERE STORM GUIDANCE INDICATED THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE SATURDAY...WITH A PROBABILITY OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THAT IS TYPICAL OF A LOW-END THREAT. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS LOW DESPITE THE FACT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY.
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