May 18, 2013
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE GFS TRENDING TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. OVERALL...FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROVIDING SPELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS FAST FLOW ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH GUIDANCE A BIT OF A MOVING TARGET. BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE REGION. FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS...WILL TAPER OFF THE POPS SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH THIS WINTER...TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
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