Saturday through Wednesday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER WEATHER IN ITS WAKE BEFORE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO REMAINED CONSISTENT IN ITS WETTER SOLUTION...KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG OR NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...WITH MORE RIDGING ALOFT. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES LEND SOME SUPPORT TO THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF SO WILL LIKELY HEDGE TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DOES AGREE ON BRINGING A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DETAILS. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


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