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Friday through Tuesday

By: NWS
By: NWS

BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND EURO HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY `INCONSISTENT` WITH THEIR RUN-TO-RUN OUTPUT THE PAST SEVERAL FCST CYCLES. THIS CREATES A CHALLENGING TEMP/POP FCST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM THE CA CUTOFF LOW THROUGH THE BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE SRN TIER CONUS. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS...THE LEAD IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER EARLY FRIDAY REACHES ERN KY IN 24 HRS...WITH A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OVER ERN GA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITS E OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM W TO E. THE SLOWER EURO SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARING THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS EQUALLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND GULF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.


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