May 23, 2013
THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL BE SHUNTED AROUND THE RIDGE AND NOT IMPACT OUR WX LOCALLY. THE 2ND SYSTEM OVER THE SW WILL GET CLOSER. MORE ON THAT LATER. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TEMPS TRENDS WILL CONTINUE IN OUR FAVOR WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THAT WILL BE COOLED BY THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SSTS IN THE APALACHEE BAY ARE ONLY AROUND 50 DEGREES. CONCERNING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA...FEEL DAY 3 THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS OVERDONE AT LEAST IN ITS SWD EXTENT. MOST OF THE KINEMATICS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL N OF THE AREA AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. WE SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING LING OF CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES OUR NWRN ZONES...SO WE MAINLY WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MORE FOG TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FAVOR OUR WRN ZONES ONCE AGAIN.
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