Thursday through Monday Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL OVER CNTRL GULF/FL PENINSULA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. FRONT THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO EMERGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERY WX WITH ISOLATED THUNDER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE SERN STATES. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF WITH ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET HERALDING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR MASS FIELDS BUT DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURES ...WITH THE EURO A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS. CONSEQUENTLY...LEANED TOWARD AN AVERAGE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. THIS MAKES FOR A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST WITH POSITION OF WARM FRONT AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP. WILL FOLLOW A TREND OF HIGHS IN THE 60S N TO LOW-MID 70S S...AND LOWS FROM THE 40S N TO 50S S. THESE VALUES ARE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.


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