May 23, 2013
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S EACH AFTERNOON ...THE MAIN FCST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZES ARE STILL EXPECTED EACH NIGHT WITH SEVERAL OR MORE HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A TRUE HARD FREEZE AT THIS TIME...SINCE THE SFC RIDGE POSITION WILL NOT BE IDEAL TONIGHT...AND THE AIR MASS WILL FURTHER MODIFY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. IN SUMMARY...EXPECT THE COLDEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS (SUCH AS THE TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT) TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 26 OR 27 DEGREES...SO THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE THE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS FOR A LONG DURATION LIGHT FREEZE. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE SFC RIDGE WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD OFF THE SE COAST....AND ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A NEW SFC LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL GULF...WHICH MAY SPREAD RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE CONSENSUS IN THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE SFC LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN...WHICH MAY END UP KEEPING MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH THIS STORM...THUS GREATLY REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF TSTMS.
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