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By: NWS
By: NWS

THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS NOW TO GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION CONCERNING THE LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO SUN NIGHT. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN LIFTING NEWD AS IT NEARS US AND WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE LOW CENTER TO MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY FOR MON. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN MON NIGHT. THE GFS KEEPS WANTING TO MAKE IT SNOW...AT LEAST OVER OUR NWRN ZONES. HOWEVER...WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY NON-LIQUID PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR ANOTHER DAY AND WILL END THE WX BY AROUND 08-09Z TUE. TUE WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES. THE BIG BEND COUNTIES WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NNW. A VERY COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TUE NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FORECAST. WE WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE MEX GUIDANCE, BUT DID TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 AT THE COAST AND NEAR DOWNTOWN TALLAHASSEE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EWD AND ANOTHER HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BIG BEND THU MORNING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.


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