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Sunday through Thursday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLDEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S EAST TO MID 30S WEST) WITH STACKED HIGH OVERHEAD ERN CWA DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO NEXT STORM SYSTEM/ FRONT...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING DAY. AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...VEERING WINDS TO ONSHORE WILL ALLOW MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO P/C WITH TEMPS PUSHING TO LOW 60S. GFS SHOWS A FAST-MOVING BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF GULF LOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SPIN UP LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. HOWEVER GFS FASTER/ STRONGER PUSHING LOW INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION ON MONDAY... THEN MOVING EAST LATE MONDAY WITH STRONG SLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND ACROSS CWA. FRONT DRAGGED ACROSS OUR CWA LATE MONDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE WINDS IN PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER COAST AND WATERS BUT BEST CHC WILL BE OVER TAMPA CWA. WILL GO WITH GOOD CHC SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS SUN NIGHT NW THIRD OF CWA...SPREADING SE MON-MON NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SPREADING VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR SWD. LOW TEMPS AROUND CLIMO (AROUND 40) SUN NIGHT...DROPPING TO MID-UPPER 30S MON NIGHT TO THE LOW-MID 20S TUES NIGHT IN WAKE OF FRONT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE AND WIND CHILL CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME. LIGHT FREEZE LIKELY FOR WED NIGHT-THURS. UPDATE...IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...MAY HAVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THIS NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY.


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