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Forecast Discussion through Friday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MARKED BY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT. HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BIG BEND. THE LEADING BAND OF RAIN IS BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NE-SW WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT CATCHING UP TO THE SOUTHERN END. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO LAY OUT AND SLOW DOWN AS WELL THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING WSW AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS EVENING AND INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH QPF IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN BIG BEND. FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ON THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM NW TO SE BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO BE SKEPTICAL OF THE LOWER 20S GENERATED BY THE GFS MOS...CONSIDERING THE NON-IDEAL POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH.


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