Saturday through Wednesday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AREAS. IN RESPONSE TO NEXT STORM SYSTEM/FRONT...SURFACE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND COLD AND DRY LOCAL CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING SUN. AHEAD OF FRONT...VEERING WINDS TO ONSHORE WILL ALLOW TEMPS PUSHING TO AROUND 60 SUN. GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE SWINGING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES OVER SOUTHERN LA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN MOVING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE MONDAY BRINGING STRONG SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS CWA. THE GFS DRAGS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA LATE MONDAY. ECMWF WEAKER WITH BOTH LOW AND FRONT. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT NW THIRD OF CWA...WITH MID CHC POPS SPREADING SE MON-MON NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SPREADING ARCTIC AIR SWD. LOW TEMPS AROUND CLIMO (AROUND 40) SUN-MON NIGHT BUT DROP TO AOB 30 DEGREES TUES NIGHT IN WAKE OF FRONT. OTHER THAN ABOVE FREEZE POTENTIAL..MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE ANY CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP MON NIGHT. MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT (AND ESPECIALLY GFS) THAT AIRMASS AT 00Z TUES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIP ESPECIALLY FOR SE ALA. MODELS APPEAR TO PLACE CWA IN COOL SECTOR RELATIVE TO LOW. HOWEVER BASED ON LOCAL OFFICE STUDIES...SURFACE LOW SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR IDEAL WINTRY SETUP AND 850 TO 700 MB AND 1000 TO 850 MB PARTIAL THICKNESS PLACE BEST CHC FOR NON-LIQUID PRECIP JUST OUR NW. AT THIS POINT (AND SO FAR OUT) WILL HIGHLIGHT RAIN...BUT FUTURE RUNS BEAR WATCHING.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 38570077 - wtvy.com/a?a=38570077
Gray Television, Inc.