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Forecast Discussion through Thursday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

AFTER BURNING OFF SOME MORNING DENSE FOG...THE LATE JANUARY SUN ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS WARMED TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...STRETCHING FROM VIRGINIA...THROUGH TENNESSEE...AND SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE SFC FRONT THIS EVENING WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DEEP SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SE ALABAMA...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SLOWING ITS PROGRESS AND KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...GIVING THE FRONT A FINAL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP MAXES BELOW TODAYS MID 70S. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH DROPPING INTO TEXAS. AIR MASS IS NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS LAST WEEKS AND WILL LIKELY HAVE WIND ALL NIGHT...SO AM SKEPTICAL OF THE LOW 30S SHOWN BY THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT FRIDAYS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.


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