Forecast Discussion through Sunday

By: NWS
By: NWS

ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE POSITION OF THE ARCTIC SFC RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR TO OUR NE TO ALLOW FOR WHAT WOULD BE RECORD SETTING COLD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. WITH THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NC AND VA BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NE WITH IT...AND WINDS SHOULD HAVE DIFFICULTY DIMINISHING TO TRUE CALM...THEREFORE LIMITING THE FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...THIS AIR MASS IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AND WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TONIGHT...SO THERE STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...EXCEPT MID 20S NEAR THE COAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME POSSIBILITY THAT AN EXTENSION OF THE SFC RIDGE...OR BUBBLE HIGH...WILL FORM OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT... WHICH COULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME CALM FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...SOME OF THE COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS COULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ON SATURDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 50S. TEMPS MAY DROP TO LIGHT FREEZE LEVELS OVER INTERIOR EASTERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SUN MORNING. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS A BIT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS (AND MAV GUIDANCE) MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AT THE PRESENT TIME...AS THE WINDOW FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.


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