May 21, 2013
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MAIN FCST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ...AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AND WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBLE EXTREME COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS THAT WAS EARLIER EVIDENT IN MANY OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY WITH TIME...AS THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE MAY BE TOO FAR TO OUR NE TO ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS NEEDED FOR LOWS THIS COLD. IF THE SFC WINDS REMAIN AT 2-4 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND TO THE MID 20S NEAR THE COAST...SO WILL ADJUST TEMPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD ON THIS PACKAGE. WILL ALSO INITIATE A HARD FREEZE WATCH OVER ALL AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A HARD FREEZE OVER ABOUT THE N 1/2 OF THE CWA...DESPITE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS...WHICH WILL ALSO LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THESE SAME AREAS (15 DEGREES OR BELOW) LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER TO THE SE...EXPECT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
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