Forecast Discussion through Friday

THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON FRIDAY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES ON SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION SUNDAY. THIS MAINTAINS UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MON. THIS FIRST HALF OF PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND DRIER AIR DRIVEN INTO THE REGION BY A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. FRI NIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL EARLY SUN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FIRST COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS ONE MAY BEING M/CLOUDY SKIES AND A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE COLD AND DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH OF THE WEEKEND. THE SECOND REINFORCING FRONT SHOULD PASS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUES AND AGAIN... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SE TUES INTO WED. THE MAIN FOCUS OF EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO THE VERY COLD MASSIVE 1045-1050 MB ARCTIC RIDGE WITH VERY COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADING THE DEEP SOUTH BRINGING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BE CENTERED ALMOST OVER THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CALM CONDITIONS AND IDEAL SET-UP FOR COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREAK RECORDS OVER LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE RECORD LOW FOR THE TALLAHASSEE AIRPORT ON SATURDAY IS 17 DEGREES (1977). NEW MEX GUIDANCE EVEN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUN WITH MIN TEMPS SAT MORNING 6, 13 AND 16 AT TLH, VLD AND DHN RESPECTIVELY. MOS SHOWS 12, 15 AND 15 FOR THE THREE SITES. HARD PRESSED TO FOLLOW MEX ESPECIALLY SINCE ACCORDING TO TLH CLIMO...LESS THAN ONE PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURE DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES IN MONTH OF JANUARY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO MOS WHICH STILL DROPS INHERITED FORECAST 3-4 DEGREES. SO EVERYTHING POINTS TO A SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE EVENT OVER OUR AREA. HIGHS SAT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT PAST 50 SE ALA TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE (PER MOS). HARD FREEZE FOR AT LEAST ERN HALF OF CWA POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. AS HIGH SHIFTS EWD BEGINNING SUNDAY...MINS GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT HOVER AROUND FREEZING THRU PERIOD. BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BUT TEMPS STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO. GFS IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY FINALLY GIVING LOCAL REGION A BREAK FROM A WINTRY WEEK.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 37602044 - wtvy.com/a?a=37602044
Gray Television, Inc.