Thursday Night through Tuesday Discussion

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY COLD CANADIAN HIGH (1045-1050MB) WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. ONE SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN WAS SEEN 24 HRS AGO. THE 00Z MEX/MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE COLDEST MORNINGS BEING EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS (14-20 DEGREES). GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING RANGE FROM -2 TO -5 C (24-28F). HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE COLD 1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA SOMEWHERE FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE TO SRN IL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH 5 TO 10 MPH NRLY WINDS STREAMING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. CONSIDERING THIS TIME FRAME IS STILL BEYOND THE THREE-DAY PERIOD AND THE POSITION OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WE WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE MOS/MEX TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ADJUST UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN ALMOST OVER THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CALM CONDITIONS...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BETTER SET-UP FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THESE TWO MORNINGS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION SUNDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE TX/LA COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPERATURE VALUES.


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