Global Warming and 'Cherry Picking'

By: By Alexandre Aguiar / MetSul Weather Center - Brazil (from icecap.us)
By: By Alexandre Aguiar / MetSul Weather Center - Brazil (from icecap.us)


Europe is experiencing one of the coldest periods in recent decades. The German weather service event went further to state this winter is already one of the coldest in 100 years. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) considers these brutal cold days “normal” as result of the ocean variability. The Secretary-General of WMO, Michel Jarraud, told journalists this week that, despite the current cold snap in Europe, the major trend remained unmistakably one of warming. “If we look at the trajectory over the last 160 years", he said “it overlays a large natural variability, and that’s what causes confusion”. The cooler weather that was a hallmark of 2008 could be explained partly by La Nina, a reversal of the phenomenon by which warm waters build up on the surface of the Pacific.

Well, I love these statements. First of all, if you go the WMO web page dedicated to the ENSO phenomena there is no information on La Nina. Despite the clear signals from the Pacific (marked subsurface cooling, persistent negative PDO and the highest SOI values since 1988 for that time of the year) and the forecasts of many climate models since September and October, the World Meteorological Organization issued a forecast in November for neutrality for early 2009:

“Near-neutral conditions of air-sea interactions currently prevail in the tropical Pacific. These are expected to continue at least through the remainder of 2008. Historically, the normal period for development of El Nino or La Nina is March-May, so forecasters will be watching for any signs of such development. At this time, it is too early to derive reliable indicators on possible El Nino or La Nina development during March-May 2009. Models and expert interpretation are in good agreement that near-neutral conditions are expected to continue at least to the end of 2008 and indeed into early 2009. The situation over the tropical Pacific will continue to be carefully monitored and timely updates of any new developing anomalies provided”.

Well, the Pacific is in classic La Nina mode and no update was provided so far. Isn’t funny to read the WMO blaming La Nina for the massive cold snap in Europe when they were (and still are forecasting in the organization webpage) neutrality for this early 2009 ? If you are a daily ICECAP reader, you must remember we and Joseph D’Aleo were forecasting a La Nina event when the WMO issued its ENSO forecast in November. They cannot forecast correctly the Pacific for 60 days and we are forced to believe they can envision the weather in 100 years. My friends, the real fact is that when Europe suffers a heat wave they rush to point global warming and CO2 as a cause, but when the continent suffers a major cold snap is just natural variability. Pardon Monsieur Jarraud, the Earth is cooling this decade and it is time to update your ENSO web page.

(see more at icecap.us)


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