Saturday through Sunday Night

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A RESULTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THESE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE... WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. FURTHER WEST...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AS SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT IMPEDE THE RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS. EVEN WARMER STILL WILL BE LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY WESTWARD. THESE SPOTS WILL SEE A MORE DIRECT FLOW OFF THE WATER PREVENTING TEMPS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME TO A GENERAL AGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BECOMES ELONGATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NAM/ECMWF/SREF/GFS ALL PROGRESS THIS FRONT INTO SOUTHERN AL DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HOLDS ITS POSITION JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A DRY SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. EVEN THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POPS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR A WARM LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. GFS/NAM SHOWING A BROAD BUT HEALTHY LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE NOSING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...AS THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS PROGRESSING INTO OUR AREA...THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS STILL WELL BACK TO THE WEST. THIS LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER WEAK AND LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY OF THE PROFILE. DESPITE THE LACK OF THERMODYNAMICS...THE KINEMATICS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST AROUND 45 TO 50 KNOTS. THIS IS PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...EVEN THOUGH A WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS UNLIKELY. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA/FL BIG BEND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TAKES CONTROL OF THE EASTERN U.S. DURING SUNDAY. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL HOLD CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL END ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. ALL ZONES SHOULD BE DRY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A HEALTHY CANOPY OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. COOL BUT DRY WEATHER THEN ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Gray Television, Inc. - Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 37362069 - wtvy.com/a?a=37362069