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BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES SINCE CHRISTMAS...THAT LOOKS TO BE COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEK. GFS/EURO ALL SUGGEST THAT THE EAST COAST TROF WILL DEEPEN AS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES. SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EAST COAST TROF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH EACH IMPULSE AS LITTLE OR NO RETURN FLOW WILL BE REALIZED OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. INSTEAD...EACH PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY AIR. IN FACT...OUR REGION COULD BE LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE BY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE AT TLH SINCE DEC 13. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BY THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING QUICKLY OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. IN THE GFS...THIS HIGH PEAKS AT 1057 MB OVER THE DAKOTAS WHILE BARRELING TOWARD THE GULF COAST. IN THE EURO THE RIDGE IS WEAKER (1045 MB) AND TRACKS MORE TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...A DECENT COLD BLAST WOULD BE IN OUR FUTURE BY THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING AND FLOPPING RUN TO RUN IN THE EXTENDED...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST IN THE FAR EXTENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE MEX GUIDANCE...BUT STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID JANUARY.


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