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By: NWS
By: NWS

WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. ELONGATED MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE STRETCHED FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WE WILL FIND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS TN/MS AND DOWN INTO SOUTHERN LA. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE PACKAGES AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT WITH THE GFS ABOUT SIX HOUR AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. LAST TWO NAM RUNS HAVE ALSO AGREED WITH THE ECMWF TIMING AND WILL LEAN THIS FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. USING THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION BRINGS THE FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING HOUR SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KNOCK THE MAV POPS BACK SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND KEEP HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER...IF THE TIMING OF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT THEN THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN...EVEN ACROSS THE FAR WEST WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A TYPICAL FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH VERY GOOD KINEMATICS AND QUESTIONABLE THERMODYNAMICS. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH AN 850MB JET OF 40-50KTS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 50KTS. THIS TYPE OF SHEAR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OF SUPPORTING A FEW EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL DESPITE THE INSTABILITY.


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