Tuesday through Wednesday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE, THE SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE JOINED BY THE NWRN ENERGY AS IT MOVES ACROSS TX. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TUE MORNING AND THEN MOVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE SRN MOST APPALACHIANS BY 06Z WED. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN SURGING EWD ON TUE NIGHT. A 55-60 KT 850-MB JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 155-KT UPPER LEVEL JET ARRIVES FROM THE W. NEEDLESS TO SAY, SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 70 KT. AS IS SO OFTEN THE CASE HERE, LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY WILL BE MARGINAL. NEVERTHELESS, THE GFS AND NAM BOTH KEEP A NARROW BAND OF CAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE BELIEVE THAT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES OUR ZONES, MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT, WITH BOWING STRUCTURES PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. THERE REMAIN TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS, BUT THE CONSISTENTLY SLOW NAM NOW APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO. PEAK WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE 00-06Z WED. THE CONVECTION MAY BE SUB-SEVERE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR ERN ZONES. THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">OUTLOOK FROM SPC TRIMMED BACK ERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA, WHICH NOW ESSENTIALLY COVERS OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES. THE FRONT PUSHES E OF THE AREA EARLY WED AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WED AND WED NIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 30S COMMON INLAND. THERE WILL BE SOME COASTAL HAZARD CONCERNS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. SURF ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA (6 FT) TUE NIGHT AND PEAK AT AROUND 8-9 FT WED OVER OUR W FACING BEACHES IN GULF AND ERN BAY COUNTIES. ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO WLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WE EXPECT VULNERABLE AREAS IN GULF COUNTY TO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. PRODUCTS ADDRESSING THESE ISSUES WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. FINALLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR FORECAST AREA THAT INLAND FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.


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