9:00 pm Friday:
Once again, I am forced out of doing a video by a weak voice. It's better than it was yesterday, but I don't want to risk screwing it up again. I actually don't feel too bad, it's all in my sinuses, but I just wore my voice slap out back on Tuesday and it's taking time to recover.
There are not many changes for the short range. I am still looking for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms starting late tonight through tomorrow evening from east Texas to western Alabama. There may also be a few severe thunderstorms around in North Florida and southern Georgia on Sunday. The one difference I see today is that some thunderstorms may also try to fire back along the arctic front in the lower Mississippi Valley again on Sunday, but the upper level support won't be as good and this is less likely to be severe. We should get another decent rain in the main drought areas out of this system as it comes east.
Again, the cold air behind it is going down the Plains first. It will meet up with our next storm (currently over the Pacific Northwest) over Texas on Monday and bring a nice rain to the other really dry area of the South. So, it will be a chilly rain, too. Don't be surprised if y'all on the northern fringe of the precipitation area get a little icy funny business out of this situation ... this area may include the DFW Metroplex (you paying attention, Marianne?!?), but at this time I am not convinced that the precipitation will be heavy enough to cause a major icing event ... and it may not be quite cold enough, anyway.
This storm will be a hassle as it comes out of Texas Tuesday and to the East Coast at night. Again, it looks like it will head far enough north that severe weather in the Deep South is going to be the main concern rather than ice in the Carolina Piedmont or snow on the northern fringe of the precipitation. However, there might still be some ice at the onset as far south as North Carolina if the storm doesn't dawdle too long back in Texas. But my main worry will be the severe weather, including tornadoes, that look to be on the offensive from Louisiana to Alabama during the day, and possibly Georgia into the eastern Carolinas into the evening and at night. North Florida should get in on the action, too, but the threat appears to be less as the front gets farther south in the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night into Wednesday. Also, this should be a really nice, 1-3 (and locally more) inch soaking rain event for the main drought areas in the western Carolinas and surrounding states. Finally, it would be no surprise to me if all the above happens 12 hours or so slower than the models are saying, but they haven't been too bad with timing of late.
After that, we're back into a cold pattern that is going to last for 10-14 days, maybe longer. Currently, the models are not showing the severe deep freeze situation they were, but that is always a threat when one of the outlets of arctic air is eastern North America during the coldest time of the year. However, today's GFS run does look mighty cold on the 12th and 13th for much of the Southeast ... how does most of Tennessee, the Carolinas, and a chunk of Alabama and large chunk of Georgia staying below freezing all day sound to you? That's what it's calling for. 20s by day in Charlotte usually translates to low teens or single digits at night (I would expect single digits if the arctic high is squarely over the Carolinas as the GFS is showing for the morning of Wednesday the 14th). We would need minus signs in the southern Appalachians if that works out. That isn't quite 1985, but it's pretty (bleep) cold. The coming cold will be worse the farther east you are, with Texas and Oklahoma getting glancing blows.
While I'm convinced we're going to get cold for a while (and probably really cold for part of that time), am not so convinced we see much snow and ice out of it (yet). The model shows the upper pattern not favorable for moisture to return back to the north ahead of the storm systems that will move through. Of course, out of the 3-4 that likely will affect the Southeast during this time, one probably will surprise us. As it stands now, though, the best we can do for snow will be along the spine of the Appalachians with upslope snows. However, the GFS, at the end of it's semi-reliable period on next Thursday, shows a very strong upper level disturbance coming across the mountains when upslope is occurring. That usually means the favored spots really clean up with 8 inches to a foot of snow, the not-so-favored spots get an inch or two, and flurries sneak into the Piedmont. There would be another blast of high winds to go along with it.
My next day in the office is Sunday, and I expect my voice to be off injured reserve by then.
This will be the next-to-last installment before I do a wrap-up after the BCS Championship game next week. A post dealing with just that game will come early next week. That Liberty bowl turned out to be a barn-burner, didn't it? And a rotten egg was laid in Pasadena, so Happy Valley isn't so happy today.
I actually was pulling for Penn State to win that game, I just didn't think they would. I pull for them simply because it's easier to live with the natives around here when the Lions are winning ... making my life easier. Pennsylvania has three football teams, the Steelers, the Eagles, and the Lions. Just because the Lions play on Saturday instead of Sunday doesn't lessen their influence ... the fan base and economic impact is like having a third pro team.
I was very surprised by Ole Miss today, well done, y'all! I also scored a loss today in the weather department, for the Liberty Bowl it is a good 5-7 degrees warmer than I expected it would be and my game ending temperature may be off by more than 10. So, on the picks going into the Sugar Bowl I am 17-12, but I am 27-2 with the weather. Well, I am calling my weather for the Sugar Bowl right as it was 67 at kickoff and there have been showers reported recently, so make that 28-2. The pick is in trouble as Bama is disappointing me by being down by three touchdowns early.
Now, for the next round of picks and weather:
I don't know a whole lot about either Buffalo nor Connecticut, but I saw Buffalo looked very solid in the MAC Championship game where they ran all over Ball State. I think Buffalo takes this one by 10 or so, especially since the short drive into Canada (eh) should give Buffalo a bigger crowd at the game. As for the weather, well, the game's in Canada, so you you know it's going to be cold. Fortunately, the Rogers Centre (the Blue Jays play there) has a lid. But it will be a dry day and I expect temperatures to be in the low 20s, so if them Canadians will let you tailgate in the parking lot, it should be tolerable ... especially for someone from Buffalo or even Connecticut.
Another game in Hell. Especially if you're a Buckeye fan, because you're going to be stampeded by Longhorns. I don't think it will even be close, probably a three touchdown or so margin here. As for the weather, it's looking relatively cool in the wake of the storm that will raise a ruckus in the Southeast by Tuesday. Monday's high should be around 65, with temps falling into the 50s for most of the game. Tuesday morning will be chilly there.
Mobile, Alabama is not some place I will want to be next Tuesday afternoon. The weather could end up being way more exciting than the football. Let's hope that the potentially severe thunderstorms are out of there by the evening kickoff time. However, there's a chance for severe weather in the area during this game. Updates on potential threats for this game will be forthcoming as warranted. Even if the severe weather threat clears the area for the game, it could still be pouring rain. Without the weather factor, this game is a tossup. With the driving rain favoring a rushing attack and putting a lot of pressure on a team capable of turnovers (which I observed during the above-mentioned MAC Championship), I think Tulsa probably squeaks this one out. Since my call is for rain (or worse) during the game, my pick is for Tulsa by a touchdown. If the weather turns out far different, my pick would be in jeopardy, though.
This is not the final forecast, but an outlook. It's nearly a home game for Florida. They are an irresistible force. Oklahoma is another irresistible force. Both have looked flat in one game this year. As for the weather, it looks cool and dry by South Florida standards, but tailgaters and players alike will probably be very happy with what they get.