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Wednesday through Thursday Night Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...THEN BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET/NAMBC GRIDS OUTPUT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT THEN DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING POINT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE LOCALLY RAN CONFIDENCE GRIDS...WHICH TAKE A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND MODELS...INDICATE GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF A FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE PROBABILITIES DECREASE TO AROUND 40-50 PERCENT NEAR THE FL/GA/AL STATE LINE. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FEW UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES SKIRTING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES FROM WEST TO EAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PV ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE IMPULSES ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE HORIZONTAL WIND FIELD. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SLIGHT REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GOM...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT. THE GFS BEGINS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK LIFT JUST TO OUR WEST AND ACROSS THE FAR SWRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS IN THIS PACKAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.


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