Friday through Tuesday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

GLOBAL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOWING A POTENT TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT PROVIDED THE AREA WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THE WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND FORECAST AREA BECOMES RATHER COMPLEX FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINLY. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DIGGING EASTERN TROUGH...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A RATHER BAGGY SURFACE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AT THE SAME TIME...WITH A WARM- FRONTAL FEATURE STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT A ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RESULTING IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE CROSSING THE SE STATES. THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITION OF THESE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FROM THIS OVERALL SYSTEM...WILL FORECAST AN UNSETTLED DAY WITH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO COVER OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AGAIN LOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER WARM-FRONTAL FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION IS HIGHLY DEBATED. GFS RUNS A PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND KEEPS GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THIS ENERGY FURTHER NORTH AND MORE CO-LOCATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE COMBINED LIFT BRINGS A HEALTHY SWATH OF RAINFALL INTO THE AREA DURING SUNDAY. WITH SUCH DISAGREEMENT... WILL NOT MAKE ANY RADICAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL ONLY ADD A SMALL CHANCE POP TO THE WESTERN ZONES. KEEP IN MIND THAT THAT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. GLOBAL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY COMES BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOWING HEALTHY MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY RESULTS IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. IF THIS FORECAST WERE TO HOLD...THIS FRONT WOULD BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.


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