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Thursday Night through Monday Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOWING AN ACTIVE BUT PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY/SOUTHERN CANADA. POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE LOW (ALBERT CLIPPER SYSTEM) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING EAST OF CAPE COD WED EVENING TO BECOMING A STRONG OCEAN STORM BY THUR MORNING. COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING WEDNESDAY AND BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL SEE STRONG 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL ONLY BRIEFLY FOR THURSDAY PROVING A FAIR AND SEASONABLE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS SHARP TROUGHING ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS NOW SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECT OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST ECMWF/CANADIAN BOTH SHOWING A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH A GOOD SHOT AT A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE 18Z GFS SHOWED THIS AS WELL...HOWEVER THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN IS SPEEDING UP THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...AND NOW HAS THE FRONT CROSSING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FASTER PASSAGE DOES NOT ALLOW MUCH RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF AND RESULT IN A DRIER PASSAGE. WITH THIS SOLUTION BEING THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND THE GFS`S OWN 12Z ENSEMBLES... WILL KEEP WITH THE LATER AND WETTER (SHOWERS/TSTORMS) FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. EITHER WAY THE FRONT IS MOVING WELL EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR/SEASONABLE WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS AND NOW 00Z ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE CROSSING THE GULF DURING SUNDAY WITH THE GFS TRYING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES ARE NOT FORECAST WELL BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL KEEP SHOWER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND JUST SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ENSEMBLE FORECAST INDICATES A WARM PATTERN TO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST.


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