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Saturday Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. PATTERN IS DIFFERENT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE EASTERLY THAN SOUTH-EASTERLY. THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE RAPID INLAND SPREAD OF FOG FROM APALACHEE BAY INTO THE BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE THAT WAS SEEN CHRISTMAS NIGHT. SEE LITTLE REASON AT THIS POINT TO MAKE SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FOG GRIDS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. THE WESTERN FORECAST AREAS (SOUTHEAST AL/EASTERN PANHANDLE) APPEAR MORE RIPE FOR LOWER CIG LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG. IT WILL BE AREAS FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GA/EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN AM BEGINNING TO SEE A LARGE EXPANSE OF FOG ON 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM THE GA/NE FLORIDA COASTS. JACKSONVILLE HAS JUST DROPPED TO 1/2SM WITH THIS AREA OVERSPREADING THE CITY. THE NAM/RUC AND LOCAL WRF ALL CURRENTLY HANDLING THIS AREA WELL...HOWEVER THEY HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THIS AREA WILL EXPAND INLAND AND REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH OUR ZONES FROM AROUND MADISON TO VALDOSTA AND NORTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TONIGHT AS TO AREAL COVERAGE SEVERAL HOURS DOWN THE ROAD. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE ADVISORIES DO BECOME NECESSARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING SEEMS TO BE PREVENTING ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-FOG OFF OF APALACHEE BAY. APALACHICOLA WAS AT 1/4 MILE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW...BUT IN CONTRAST THEY ARE ONLY SEEING A BIT OF MIST WITH 5SM VIS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND THIS MAY LEAD TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCH/AREAS OF FOG WILL BE COMMON SATURDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BREAKING OUT TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE AND 850MB TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND AND LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES.


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