Short Term Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE EVOLVING SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL...THE ECMWF HAS REMAINED THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD IT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN...THE 12Z RUN TODAY HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF PACKAGE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FROM THE LAST WILL BE THE LATER TIMING OF THE END OF THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILLING ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST COME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LIFT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SREF MEAN/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE TX/LA COAST AND BRING IT EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW GOM AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTH OF MOBILE AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE MODELS WITH THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES THROUGH THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS MUCAPES DURING THIS TIME HAVE INCREASED FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND ARE NOW SHOWING 1000-1700 J/KG OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY COME AFTERNOON/EVENING.


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