Short Term Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...CONDITIONS SHOULD VERY GOOD FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT PARTS OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY COULD APPROACH A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT (25 DEGREES OR LESS FOR 2 OR MORE HRS)...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 26 OR 27 IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. NEVERTHELESS...THE DURATION OF LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 6 TO 8 HOURS IN SOME AREAS...SO THE USUAL PRECAUTIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TAKEN. ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND MUCH MORE QUICKLY TO INSOLATION THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. ON THURSDAY... HIGHS MAY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS APPEARING WEAKER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL CYCLE. THEREFORE...STILL ONLY EXPECT SCT SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE...AS THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


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