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Long Term Forecast Discussion for Thursday through Monday

By: NWS
By: NWS

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND 30/12Z EURO WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR NWRN ZONES BY AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL TREND POPS UPWARD TO THE LOW CHANCE (30) CATEGORY FOR THE NW ZONES ON THURSDAY AND TO SLIGHT CHANCE (20) ALL ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST LOCATIONS COULD SEE A BRIEF FREEZE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE HIGH SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EURO ESSENTIALLY RETURNS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NWD ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHUNTS THE SYSTEM DECIDEDLY DOWN THE PENINSULA FOR A DRY AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURNING NWD AHEAD OF IT. WE WILL GO WITH THIS SOLUTION AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING TO LOW CHANCE FOR MONDAY.


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