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Monday Night through Wednesday Night Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SYNOPSIS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHWESTERN MS. THESE AREA OF CLOUDS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. THE VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE PACE OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH WHAT WAS INDICATED IN THE MODELS THIS AFTERNOON...SO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES AFTER SUNSET ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY WARMED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. THE WINDS HAVEN`T MADE IT MUCH BETTER AS IT HAS FELT DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH WINDS SUSTAINING AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES TODAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: FORECAST THIS CYCLE LARGELY CENTERED ON THE FIRST 18 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EAST COAST TROF. AS WE`VE BEEN MENTIONING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW...TIMING IS EVERYTHING WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING AND TRACK...WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON ITS SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TONIGHT...AS FORCED ASCENT INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS AND SPREAD TOWARD THE COAST AFTER 00Z. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA...THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD MAINLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 06-08Z AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. RH TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIP...IF NOT THE LIFT...ENDING BY THIS TIME. AT VLD...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE LINGERS TOWARD 12Z...BUT THE DIFFICULTY FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW FLURRIES GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A SECONDARY FREEZING LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...WILL BE THE NARROW WARM LAYER FROM 925 MB DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. I`VE LOOKED AT SOME MODEL DATA THAT SUPPORTS IT...BUT THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE DATA I`VE LOOKED AT...UP TO AND INCLUDING THE 01/18Z RUC WOULD ARGUE AGAINST IT. THE 01/18Z RUC SHOWS 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C AT 03Z...WITH NOT MUCH HOPE FOR THEM LOWERING MORE PRIOR TO THE MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...WILL WORD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ONLY LIGHT RAIN...BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE RECEIVE REPORTS OF FLURRIES MIXING WITH RAIN OVER OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. I APPRECIATE THE COORDINATION EFFORTS WITH JAX TODAY ON THIS MOST DIFFICULT FORECAST.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE POSITION LIKELY SETTING UP OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...IT ISN`T IN THE BEST POSITION FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THUS...WILL RUN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE MAV FOR TEMPERATURES. NEVERTHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE BOARD. WEDNESDAY...THINGS BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IS EXPECTED. LOW AT NIGHT WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY...AND RETURN TO THE 40S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 30S IN THE EAST.


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