Long Term Area Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

DEEP UPPER TROUGH ANCHORS ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS WITH UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION NEAR OH VALLEY LIFTING RAPIDLY NE TO ACROSS PENN/CANADIAN BY MON AFTN AND INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 00Z TUES. LOCALLY...EXPECT BRISK NW WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN WAKE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. UPSTREAM SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON TUE AND TREKS EAST...OVER FL WED AND THEN OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC ON THU. THAT PUTS US IN A WNW FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION YIELDING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO WED. THEN...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF COAST AND INTO ADJACENT ATLC AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS EWD. WITH SURFACE HIGH EXITING EAST OF CWA...NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO SLIDE SEWD ACROSS MS VALLEY WITH BEGINNING OF RETURN FLOW ON THURS ESPECIALLY WRN THIRD OF CWA. DYNAMICS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SEEM WEAK AT THIS TIME AND FURTHER N THAN PRIOR FRONT. MODELS HINT AT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THRU MON LATE NIGHT AND MEX POPS WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAINING INTO PREDAWN HOURS OF TUES... ESPECIALLY ERN COUNTIES UNTIL TROUGH AXIS COMPLETELY EAST OF CWA. SO SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FOR MON (SREF POPS 00Z-12Z MONDAY WITH 20-60 NW-SE POP GRADIENT BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE). BUT CONCERN IS MON NIGHT INTO TUES IF ANY MOISTURE LINGERS. PARTIAL THICKNESS PLOTS SHOW MIXED PRECIP ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. I.E. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS IS 1380MB ACROSS SE BIG BEND AND 1290MB ACROSS SE ALA. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL EXIT B4 COLDEST AIR SO WILL DOWNPLAY WINTER WX THREAT UNTIL I SEE SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY. THEN NO POPS TUES THRU FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS AND COMBINED WITH A SURFACE HIGH EAST AND SURFACE WINDS BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT WILL LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY TUES AND WED MORNINGS. COLDEST MORNING SHOULD BE TUES WITH INLAND MEX LOWS 28-32. AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY WED MORNING...WRN COUNTIES MIN SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING..BUT STILL AROUND FREEZING ERN COUNTIES. MIN AND MAX TEMPS INCH UP TO NEAR CLIMO THURS INTO FRI.


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