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Saturday through Wednesday Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE STATES. THE ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL PULSES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...THERE ARE QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS BEGINS THE PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYING OUT FROM EAST TO WEST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT INDICATES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC LOW WILL BE POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GOM IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. IT SHOWS THIS SFC LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF INDICATES A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. DUE TO THESES UNCERTAINTIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMO AND TAKE A BLEND BETWEEN THE MODELS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


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