May 21, 2013
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FORECAST CYCLE THAN THE ONE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. WHILE THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RAPIDLY DECREASES AFTER SATURDAY EVENING. THE 25/00Z GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT STALLS IT JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE 24/12Z EURO FAVORS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE SOLUTION OF THE 25/00Z GFS IS LIKELY DUE TO A DAMPENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WHEREAS THE 24/12Z EURO PREFERS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE 25/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REPRESENTS MORE OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED GFS AND PROGRESSIVE EURO. CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD BE BOLSTERED BY SUPPORT FROM THE 25/00Z EURO. WHICH...BASED ON WHAT LITTLE DATA HAS COME IN THUS FAR ON THE 25/00Z EURO...IT SEEMS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL EURO.
|
