Thursday (Thanksgiving) through Monday Night Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

CONTINUED AMPLIFIED AND FAST MOVING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS STILL INDICATED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FLAT FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN GAINING SUPPORT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THESE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE (ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MANY) DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL HELP PULL THE SURFACE WAVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS AND UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM HAS DECENT CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL GET THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HOLDS UP OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...IT WON`T REMAIN THERE FOR LONG AS THE OVERALL EAST COAST TROF DEEPENS MORE AND ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SHOULD CLEAR OUR REGION OUT BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO. A COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PASSES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP MAX TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. MIN TEMPS...ASIDE FROM A LIGHT FREEZE ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL WARM EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BE ABOVE NORMAL THESE LAST TWO DAYS. COOLER MINS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING.


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